Elk populations are depressed south and west of Missoula, but appear healthy to the east. Permits for antlerless elk were reduced because of low cow-calf numbers in the Bitterroot and Superior areas. NELSON KENTER

Predicted warm, dry weather could hamper hunters more than animal, bird numbers

By ROB CHANEY
of the Missoulian

Trophy hunters could have good fortune, but meat hunters better hone their skills for Montana’s 2009 big-game season.

That’s because while adult deer and elk populations are strong in most parts of Montana, Mother Nature hasn’t been very helpful in the yearling and weather departments.

A combination of hard winters, liberal hunting allowances and increased predator activity has reduced the number of antlerless elk and deer permits released this year. And the National Weather Service predicts an El Nino winter for the northern Rocky Mountains, which means above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation this fall and winter.

“I think people are generally going to find good populations of elk and deer this year,” said Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks Region 2 wildlife manager Mike Thompson. “But their ability to find them is really going to depend on snow and cold.”

Granted, long-range forecasts are only slightly more precise than friend-of-a-friend hunting tips. Nevertheless, anyone who struggled last year tracking in snow-free forests and climbing extra contour lines to reach productive elevations better prepare for more of the same this year.

Upland game birds faced a mixed weather bag this year, and their populations rose and fell accordingly in different parts of the state. Western Montana had good June rains and no cold snaps, so its grouse populations should be close to average. But the northeastern and southern parts of the state both had colder, wetter springs that may depress chick survival, according to FWP game bird coordinator Rick Northrup.

“Hunters may see fewer upland game birds in Daniels, Sheridan and Roosevelt counties than they might expect,” Northrup said. “This is unfortunate given the average or above-average numbers of sharp-tailed grouse and gray partridge enjoyed in these counties in recent years.”

Drought conditions along Montana’s Hi-Line counties also contributed to poor brood survival this year. Northrup said bird numbers could be closer to average or above as hunters look south of U.S. Highway 2, where conditions were milder.

And a rainy weather system that chilled southeastern Montana from Glendive to Big Timber in early June will probably hurt young sharp-tailed grouse numbers in that region. The area should have good bird cover, however, and older birds could be doing well.

The spruce grouse population in western Montana should be somewhat above average, Northrup said. Those birds hatch broods in early summer, and so get a weather advantage for their survival. Ruffed and blue grouse harvest numbers are expected to be around average this fall.

Here is a detailed look, by region, at the outlook for hunters all across Montana this fall.

Region 1: Northwest Montana (Libby, Troy, Thompson Falls, Swan Lake, Kalispell)
The northwest corner of Montana has seen its elk numbers hold steady or decline slightly, with a 2009 regional average of 15 calves per 100 cows. Hot spots include the lower Clark Fork Valley, Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex, the Lost Trail National Wildlife Refuge of the Purcell Mountains and the North Fork of the Flathead River.

Whitetail deer herds also showed declines compared to previous years. Mule deer numbers have held steady, and hunters could be rewarded by looking for them in the higher-altitude areas of the lower Clark Fork, Whitefish Mountains, and the Cabinet, Mission and Swan ranges.
Region 2: West-central Montana (Missoula, St. Regis, Hamilton, Darby, Deer Lodge, Lincoln)
Elk populations appear healthy in the eastern half of the region, but are depressed south and west of Missoula. Permits for antlerless elk were reduced this year after aerial surveys reported low numbers of cows and calves in the Bitterroot and Superior areas.
Mule deer numbers around Missoula remained steady this year, but whitetail deer were below average on the more accessible public lands. Over-the-counter doe tags will not be sold this year to help boost whitetail populations.

Region 3: South-central Montana (Helena, Livingston, Dillon, Ennis)
Elk outlooks are good for most of this chunk of central and southwestern Montana. Opportunities include both brow-tined and antlerless hunting and surplus A9 antlerless tags available in many Region 3 hunting districts. The Gravelly and Tobacco Root mountains, and the Shields Valley are expected to have good hunting potential. However, hunting districts 310 in the Upper Gallatin and 313 in the Gardiner area may be poorer than normal due to high predator concentrations, including wolves.

Mule deer recruitment across the region was moderate, with numbers healthy but below historic highs. Antelope populations appear to be healthy throughout the region.

Region 4: North-central Montana (Cut Bank, Great Falls, Fort Benton, Lewistown)
Although access is difficult, elk numbers are growing in much of this stretch of north-central Montana. Little Belt Mountain herds in particular are showing above-average populations.

Antelope, on the other hand, are coming in below average in most parts of the region except just north of Great Falls. Other areas will see smaller herds than in the past two years.

Mule deer are also down in Region 4. The number of surplus antlerless tags for mulies was reduced this year to help populations recover after two fawn-killing springs in a row.

Region 5: Central-south Montana (Harlowtown, Billings, Red Lodge, Custer)
If you’ve got access to private land, elk hunting in this south-central portion of Montana could be very good in 2009. Spring population surveys showed elk numbers at average or well-above-average levels on many private ranches, with numbers not so good in places with public access. Landowner permission is required to hunt private land, and hunters should start early to make arrangements and contacts.

Mule deer numbers should be below last year’s count, with a tough winter and late spring storms hurting fawn survival. Buck/doe ratios remain good, however. Whitetail deer populations are at or above average, especially south of the Yellowstone River. North of the river, whitetails appear to be forsaking upper prairie habitats but showing increases of 10 percent over last year in river bottom areas.

Region 6: Northeastern Montana (Havre, Glasgow, Sidney, Plentywood)
Special permits are a prerequisite for most of this popular elk-hunting area, but those lucky gunners should find average or above-average herd numbers this fall. That’s true especially for the Missouri Breaks and Bears Paw Mountains. The area north of U.S Highway 2 will see low elk densities.

Both whitetail and mule deer endured a tough winter last year, but came through with healthy population numbers. Counts were high in the Glasgow area along the Milk and Missouri river corridors. Mule deer have been rebounding from low numbers earlier in the decade, and whitetail numbers are still above average in the northeastern corner despite a serious winterkill last year. Hunters should consult the block management program offerings for opportunities on private land.

Antelope figures are all over the map, figuratively and literally. Winterkill knocked some populations down as much as 23 percent below 2008 estimates in parts of Valley, Phillips, Blaine and Hill counties. But Richland and McCone counties are showing increases of 50 percent over last year’s estimates. Hunting district 650 between Circle and Wolf Point is expected to be a bright spot.

Region 7: Southeastern Montana (Mosby, Miles City, Glendive, Broadus)
Montana’s southeastern quarter should show healthy elk and deer populations. 2008 winter surveys in the Missouri Breaks found 36 bulls for every 100 cows, while spring surveys of the Custer National Forest found a ratio of 30 bulls to 100 cows. Both whitetail and mule deer also did well over the winter.

Whitetail populations along the Yellowstone River between Glendive and Sidney were 70 percent to 75 percent above average, with a ratio of 30-40 bucks per 100 does.

Mule deer numbers look to be about 18 percent above average, with 30 bucks per 100 does. Antelope did not do so well in southeastern Montana, with the 2008 winter hurting fawn and yearling survival. Overall, the antelope population in the region looks to be 7 percent below normal.

Reach reporter?Rob Chaney at (406) 523-5382 or by
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